Upset Looming in the Midwest

Michigan Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow is considered by the press and pundits to be a shoe-in for re-election to the US Senate; she had been leading all contenders by 13-25 %, depending on which Republican candidate she is matched against and which poll your looking at, but her lead is now 8.1% in the latest Zogby poll. And her lead will not last; the press/pundits are missing the following clues to what lies ahead:

• Union households in Michigan, which usually vote Democrat, will now vote for the Republican candidate for governor according to a recent Detroit News/WXYZ-TV poll.
• This turn is reminiscent of the Reagan Democrats, typified by the blue collar community of Macomb County, which is next-door to Oakland County, which has a wildly popular sheriff by the name of Michael Bouchard.
• Bouchard is currently in the Republican primary for U.S. senator and is leading in the polls despite a late decision in November 05 to run. His credentials include leadership positions in the Michgan Senate and now, as sheriff of Oakland County, a leading role in homeland security and the war on terror. He has a history of being tough on criminals.
  
• If he wins the GOP primary as expected, he will start getting more attention and will be seen as being allied with the interests of the Reagan Democrats. He will team with the popular Republican candidate for governor, Dick DeVos and together they will be able to conduct a strong campaign.
  
• Bouchard will be running against a vulnerable Democrat (Stabenow) in the areas of homeland security, taxes, spending, family values, and immigration.