Lebanon

Lebanon is getting all the attention; 24/7 coverage, unlimited experts and opinions. But is there any question as to the final outcome? Is there any more tragedy than that still occuring Iraq and Aghanistan?

Events in Lebanon are occuring to script; not to say easy/smooth, but much like a mystery in which the outcome can be predicted. And often the mystery is ruined by someone who must speak the obvious, prematurely revealing the final chapter, as I will now do.

The Final Solution
Warning: The following may cause
Lebanon Attention Deficit

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• Israel will clear a buffer zone of about twenty miles; to the Litani River


• The UN will establish a protectorate consisting of the buffer zone


• NATO will provide protection forces for the new protectorate

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Iraq, although not getting attention, has an outcome far more critical and less predictable. Anthony Cordesman in a July 19 CSIS article has this to say:

Losing the War in Iraq?

The Iraq War has increasingly become a race between the effort to create a new political compromise that can persuade Arab Shi'ite, Arab Sunni, and Kurd to cooperate in some new approach to governance and escalating civil violence. Bad weeks or months do not mean that the Iraqi government and the United States have yet lost that race, but the last few weeks are anything but reassuring. Read More

Personally, I am optimistic. Events in Iraq are occuring covertly in a manner that allow for optimism; reflecting accomplishment in one significant area. It is my belief that the Iraqi government has essentially brought the Shiite militia under control, which became apparent from a key paragraph in Strategy Page:

The Fire That Won't Go Out

The government knows that there are only a few dozen, at most, gangs involved in all this killing. The current deal is for the Sunni Arab community to shut down their thugs, while the government takes out the Shia militias. The government has started carrying out their end of the deal, but the Sunni Arabs have moved more slowly. This is because the Sunni Arab thugs are paranoid, quick on the trigger, and willing to murder prominent Sunni Arabs. The Sunni Arabs fear trapped, caught between their own radicals, and the majority of Iraqis (Kurds and Shia Arabs), who would just as soon see Iraq free of Sunni Arabs. The hatreds go deep, Saddam's decades of brutality against Kurds and Shia Arabs saw to that. While pundits go on about Iranian desires to dominate Iraq, the reality is more about vengeance against Sunni Arabs for past sins. Nothing too complicated, but it's a fire that's very difficult to put out. Read More

HAT TIP: Wretchard

In looking over the incidents since July 10th, all look to have been perpetrated by Sunni Terrorists/Insurgents. So, as it stands now, we have one enemy, a few gangs of Sunni; some of which will join the government and the others who are already being defeatd militarily.