Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Where is "The Shia Zarqawi" ?

We some strong clues on what really happened this past weekend in Baghdad. Take a read:

Austin Bay has a heads up on The Next Crucial Battle of the War from Strategypage.

The Shia Zarqawi

July 10, 2006: The Shia terror against Sunni Arabs has a name, Abu Deraa. He's being called the "Shia Zarqawi" for organizing death squads to take revenge after Sunni Arab suicide bombs kill Shia. But Abu Deraa isn't the only Shia death squad leader. There are several, plus smaller ones from family or tribal groups organized to take vengeance for kin lost to Saddam's thugs. This desire for vengeance, and the unwillingness of Shia to fight Shia, has, until recently, allowed a low level civil war to go on unchecked. But now the Shia are ready to fight their own, and in the last week, Shia and Kurdish police and soldiers fought Shia radicals, led by men like Abu Deraa. The Sunni Arab community know Abu Deraa by name, and have even posted pictures of him. That hasn't changed anything, because Abu Deraa's death squads still roam central Iraq, killing Sunni Arabs. Several dozen died in Baghdad yesterday, pulled from their cars, identified as Sunni Arabs, and killed on the spot. But now, with Zarqawi dead, and most of the country at peace, more and more Sunni Arab tribal chiefs, politicians, business leaders and clerics are resigned to Shia domination. That means giving up the Sunni Arab warlords, gang leaders and terrorist chiefs, the people that make most of the violence happen. It's not like the Sunni Arab leadership can just push a button, and make their bad guys go away. In Arab culture, the process moves a lot more slowly, and involves lots of talking, coffee, promises, deceit and drama. Apparently the drama has been convincing, because the Shia politicians running the country have persuaded Shia military and police units to go after Shia death squads. All of this is going to take months to play out. There will be cries of "Betrayal!" from the Shia community. Some Shia cops and soldiers will balk at busting fellow Shia, even if the perps are stone killers with dozens of bodies on them. However, the national leadership has agreed that peace with the Sunni Arabs, and an end to the vengeance killings, is necessary. Making this happen is the next crucial battle in the war.

Now let's check out excerpts from an article in last Friday's NYT
BAGHDAD, July 7 — Iraqi soldiers backed by American troops and military aircraft stormed a building in a Shiite slum here early today, killing or wounding between 30 and 40 gunmen and capturing a high-level Shiite militia commander who is accused of attacking Iraqi and American troops, the American military command said.

American and Iraqi authorities did not disclose the name of the captured man they said was a militia commander. But residents of the neighborhood said the building that came under attack was a base of operations for a man known as Abu Deraa, a top commander of the Mahdi Army, the restless and potent Shiite militia that answers to the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr....

....The American military command said they captured the intended target of their operation, as well as four other suspects. The main suspect, according to a press release, was the head of "multiple insurgent cells in Baghad," and is accused of attacking Iraqi and American government forces, kidnapping, torturing and killing Iraqi citizens, and smuggling weapons from Syria into Iraq "to reportedly facilitate his efforts to splinter away from his current insurgent organization."

....In an interview in Sadr City today, Wusam al-Bahadali, 28, a mid-level member of the Mahdi Army, denied that Abu Deraa had been detained during the raid, and said he remained at large.
These two articles tell us:
  • One of the main bad guys in Baghdad is Abu Deraa; The Shia Zarqawi
  • American and Iraqi forces attacked Deraa's base of operations
  • The intended target was captured
  • The main suspect was the head of "multiple insurgent cells"
  • A Mahdi member said Deraa had not been detained
  • The American and Iraqi authorities were not disclosing the name of the captured man
Ignoring the statement from the Mahdi spokesman (which is easy), my brain tells me that
We have captured Abu Deraa, THE SHIA ZARQAWI

Why are the American and Iraqi authorities are not disclosing who they caught? There is no obvious answer to this, but my best guess is that Abu Deraa is an alias name, and that the person is a close relative of a major figure in the Iraqi leadership.

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