The Belmont Club: A Garden Without Fences

The Belmont Club: A Garden Without Fences

Wretchard has revealed Lebanon as a country not only infested with rats, but one whose citizens have come to love the rats, and efforts to exterminate them only create greater love. He describes a love that is one-way, the rats do not love the Lebanese; they love only their own ideology. Theirs is a culture of oppression described by Eric Hoffer, Dr. Sanity and Shrinkwrapped

What happened to the Lebanon that loves Democracy and kicked out the Syrians? I hope and believe that that the rat-lovers are out-numbered by the Cedar-Revolutionaries and that events will unfold as I describe below. Lebanon can again blossom, but not with Hezballah.

Lebanon

Lebanon is getting all the attention; 24/7 coverage, unlimited experts and opinions. But is there any question as to the final outcome? Is there any more tragedy than that still occuring Iraq and Aghanistan?

Events in Lebanon are occuring to script; not to say easy/smooth, but much like a mystery in which the outcome can be predicted. And often the mystery is ruined by someone who must speak the obvious, prematurely revealing the final chapter, as I will now do.

The Final Solution
Warning: The following may cause
Lebanon Attention Deficit

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• Israel will clear a buffer zone of about twenty miles; to the Litani River


• The UN will establish a protectorate consisting of the buffer zone


• NATO will provide protection forces for the new protectorate

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Iraq, although not getting attention, has an outcome far more critical and less predictable. Anthony Cordesman in a July 19 CSIS article has this to say:

Losing the War in Iraq?

The Iraq War has increasingly become a race between the effort to create a new political compromise that can persuade Arab Shi'ite, Arab Sunni, and Kurd to cooperate in some new approach to governance and escalating civil violence. Bad weeks or months do not mean that the Iraqi government and the United States have yet lost that race, but the last few weeks are anything but reassuring. Read More

Personally, I am optimistic. Events in Iraq are occuring covertly in a manner that allow for optimism; reflecting accomplishment in one significant area. It is my belief that the Iraqi government has essentially brought the Shiite militia under control, which became apparent from a key paragraph in Strategy Page:

The Fire That Won't Go Out

The government knows that there are only a few dozen, at most, gangs involved in all this killing. The current deal is for the Sunni Arab community to shut down their thugs, while the government takes out the Shia militias. The government has started carrying out their end of the deal, but the Sunni Arabs have moved more slowly. This is because the Sunni Arab thugs are paranoid, quick on the trigger, and willing to murder prominent Sunni Arabs. The Sunni Arabs fear trapped, caught between their own radicals, and the majority of Iraqis (Kurds and Shia Arabs), who would just as soon see Iraq free of Sunni Arabs. The hatreds go deep, Saddam's decades of brutality against Kurds and Shia Arabs saw to that. While pundits go on about Iranian desires to dominate Iraq, the reality is more about vengeance against Sunni Arabs for past sins. Nothing too complicated, but it's a fire that's very difficult to put out. Read More

HAT TIP: Wretchard

In looking over the incidents since July 10th, all look to have been perpetrated by Sunni Terrorists/Insurgents. So, as it stands now, we have one enemy, a few gangs of Sunni; some of which will join the government and the others who are already being defeatd militarily.

Trends

Could this be a trend?

Maybe, maybe not, I'll keep it updated.

And then, it could be a Bush Political Trick:

• A Democratic Unity Government
• Defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq
• Disbandment of the militias
• Reduction of casualties

Peace in Iraq only a few months before the 2006 elections, Definately a BUSH TRICK!

Where is "The Shia Zarqawi" ?

We some strong clues on what really happened this past weekend in Baghdad. Take a read:

Austin Bay has a heads up on The Next Crucial Battle of the War from Strategypage.

The Shia Zarqawi

July 10, 2006: The Shia terror against Sunni Arabs has a name, Abu Deraa. He's being called the "Shia Zarqawi" for organizing death squads to take revenge after Sunni Arab suicide bombs kill Shia. But Abu Deraa isn't the only Shia death squad leader. There are several, plus smaller ones from family or tribal groups organized to take vengeance for kin lost to Saddam's thugs. This desire for vengeance, and the unwillingness of Shia to fight Shia, has, until recently, allowed a low level civil war to go on unchecked. But now the Shia are ready to fight their own, and in the last week, Shia and Kurdish police and soldiers fought Shia radicals, led by men like Abu Deraa. The Sunni Arab community know Abu Deraa by name, and have even posted pictures of him. That hasn't changed anything, because Abu Deraa's death squads still roam central Iraq, killing Sunni Arabs. Several dozen died in Baghdad yesterday, pulled from their cars, identified as Sunni Arabs, and killed on the spot. But now, with Zarqawi dead, and most of the country at peace, more and more Sunni Arab tribal chiefs, politicians, business leaders and clerics are resigned to Shia domination. That means giving up the Sunni Arab warlords, gang leaders and terrorist chiefs, the people that make most of the violence happen. It's not like the Sunni Arab leadership can just push a button, and make their bad guys go away. In Arab culture, the process moves a lot more slowly, and involves lots of talking, coffee, promises, deceit and drama. Apparently the drama has been convincing, because the Shia politicians running the country have persuaded Shia military and police units to go after Shia death squads. All of this is going to take months to play out. There will be cries of "Betrayal!" from the Shia community. Some Shia cops and soldiers will balk at busting fellow Shia, even if the perps are stone killers with dozens of bodies on them. However, the national leadership has agreed that peace with the Sunni Arabs, and an end to the vengeance killings, is necessary. Making this happen is the next crucial battle in the war.

Now let's check out excerpts from an article in last Friday's NYT

BAGHDAD, July 7 — Iraqi soldiers backed by American troops and military aircraft stormed a building in a Shiite slum here early today, killing or wounding between 30 and 40 gunmen and capturing a high-level Shiite militia commander who is accused of attacking Iraqi and American troops, the American military command said.

American and Iraqi authorities did not disclose the name of the captured man they said was a militia commander. But residents of the neighborhood said the building that came under attack was a base of operations for a man known as Abu Deraa, a top commander of the Mahdi Army, the restless and potent Shiite militia that answers to the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr....

....The American military command said they captured the intended target of their operation, as well as four other suspects. The main suspect, according to a press release, was the head of "multiple insurgent cells in Baghad," and is accused of attacking Iraqi and American government forces, kidnapping, torturing and killing Iraqi citizens, and smuggling weapons from Syria into Iraq "to reportedly facilitate his efforts to splinter away from his current insurgent organization."

....In an interview in Sadr City today, Wusam al-Bahadali, 28, a mid-level member of the Mahdi Army, denied that Abu Deraa had been detained during the raid, and said he remained at large.

These two articles tell us:

• One of the main bad guys in Baghdad is Abu Deraa; The Shia Zarqawi
• American and Iraqi forces attacked Deraa's base of operations
• The intended target was captured
• The main suspect was the head of "multiple insurgent cells"
• A Mahdi member said Deraa had not been detained
• The American and Iraqi authorities were not disclosing the name of the captured man

Ignoring the statement from the Mahdi spokesman (which is easy), my brain tells me that We have captured Abu Deraa, THE SHIA ZARQAWI
Why are the American and Iraqi authorities are not disclosing who they caught? There is no obvious answer to this, but my best guess is that Abu Deraa is an alias name, and that the person is a close relative of a major figure in the Iraqi leadership.